Tropical Storm Updates

[Update 09/21/2021 2:00PM]:

Tropical Storm Peter

 

What we know:

Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding today across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, portions of the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

After holding its own against a fairly hostile upper-level wind environment during the last 24-48 hours, Peter appears to finally be succumbing to the combination of 25-30 kt of deep-layer vertical wind shear helping to import sub-50 percent mid-level relative humidity over the center. This shear is not forecast to abate for the next 36-48 hours, and it now appears likely Peter will not be able to survive this unfavorable environment.

Tropical Storm Rose

 

What we know:

The center of Rose remains exposed this morning on satellite imagery, located about a degree west of a small area of deep convection, with a smaller low-level swirl rotating around the larger mean circulation. A pair of recent scatterometer passes indicated winds of only 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt on this advisory.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Almost all of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression this evening, and the new forecast is decreased from the previous one, especially in the near term. A continuation of this hostile environment should cause further weakening, and Rose is expected to degenerate into a weak remnant low and dissipating by the end of the forecast.

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