Tropical Disturbance Updates

[Update 09/20/2022 8:00AM]:

Tropical Disturbance 1

 

What we know:

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic, about 950 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so before upper-level winds become less conducive later this week. The system should move generally northward or northeastward while remaining over the open waters of central subtropical Atlantic.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: 80 percent (High).

Formation chance through 5 days: 80 percent (High).

 

Tropical Disturbance 2

 

What we know:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms while moving westward at 15-20 mph. Gradual development of this system is forecast during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: 10 percent (Low).

Formation chance through 5 days: 50 percent (Medium).

 

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