Tropical Disturbance Updates

[Update 09/17/2021 2:00PM]:

Tropical Disturbance 1

 

What we know:

Recent satellite images indicate that a new and better-defined center of circulation has developed in association with a low pressure area located about 250 miles east of Norfolk, Virginia. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near this new center. If these development trends continue, then a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves toward the northeast or east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph, away from the United States Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. The low is expected to transform into a non-tropical gale-force low Saturday or Saturday night while it is located south of Atlantic Canada, and it is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rains to portions of Newfoundland by Sunday and Sunday night. This system is also expected to bring high surf to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through this weekend.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: 80 percent (High).

Formation chance through 5 days: 80 percent (High).

 

Tropical Disturbance 2

 

What we know:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and then near the northern Leeward Islands by Monday and Tuesday. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development over the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 70 percent (High).

Formation chance through 5 days: 80 percent (High).

 

Tropical Disturbance 3

 

What we know:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west and then northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic, and some gradual development is possible over the weekend before upper-level winds increase and the low moves over cooler waters.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: 20 percent (Low).

Formation chance through 5 days: 30 percent (Low).

 

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