Tropical Disturbance Updates

[Update 09/17/2021 2:00PM]:

Tropical Disturbance 1

 

What we know:

Recent satellite images indicate that a new and better-defined center of circulation has developed in association with a low pressure area located about 250 miles east of Norfolk, Virginia. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near this new center. If these development trends continue, then a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves toward the northeast or east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph, away from the United States Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. The low is expected to transform into a non-tropical gale-force low Saturday or Saturday night while it is located south of Atlantic Canada, and it is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rains to portions of Newfoundland by Sunday and Sunday night. This system is also expected to bring high surf to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through this weekend.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: 80 percent (High).

Formation chance through 5 days: 80 percent (High).

 

Tropical Disturbance 2

 

What we know:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and then near the northern Leeward Islands by Monday and Tuesday. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development over the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 70 percent (High).

Formation chance through 5 days: 80 percent (High).

 

Tropical Disturbance 3

 

What we know:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west and then northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic, and some gradual development is possible over the weekend before upper-level winds increase and the low moves over cooler waters.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: 20 percent (Low).

Formation chance through 5 days: 30 percent (Low).

 

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October Hurricane Outlook

The tropics are quiet. Too quiet. We are still in the peak of Hurricane Season within the Atlantic and Pacific, but the seas are silent. However, this hiatus will not last long.

The month of October has featured several of the United States’ most vicious and ill-famed systems (i.e. Hurricane Michael in 2018).

During October, wind shear begins to increase over the eastern and central Atlantic which will tear a system apart before it develops. However, in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, the water temperatures are close to their warmest, and the wind shear remains close to its minimum.

Formation locations or tropical systems during October. (NHC/NOAA)

October is the most dangerous month for hurricanes for states like FL. Of the 112 recorded hurricanes to strike Florida since 1950, thirty-eight have occurred in October.

All Florida hurricanes since 1850 during the month of October (NHC, OPC, NOAA, HURDAT)

During month of October, there is a southward advance of the jet stream, as cold air begins to move over Canada. Which will facilitate fuel intense extratropical transitions because the remnants of hurricanes will move north.

What to Expect

By October 10th, rising motion related to consecutive convectively coupled Kelvin wave, a huge overturning circulation that meanders the tropics, will spread out around the western Atlantic. That upward motion can make it easier for storm clusters to become organized and a tropical system to mature, if one develops.

Broad rising motion will more than likely move in from the west and spread into the Western Atlantic by the second to third week of October. (CPC, NOAA)

 

During this point, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO — an analogous circulation that traverses the tropics monthly — is also supposed to enter a state that will cause a lot of storms and rain within the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

A phase 8 or 1 pattern would favor increased storms in the Gulf and Western Atlantic. (CPC, NOAA)

Even though some cooler waters linger within the northern Gulf after being churned up by Sally, the majority of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico stay warmer than usual. There is Plenty of heat to encourage a Hurricane if one does form.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico. (Tropical Tidbits)

 

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Why Is Water Temperature Important?

Human populations demand solid weather forecasting. They need to know exactly what they are up against especially during the Atlantic tropical hurricane season. Not only do they need to know the speed, direction, and likely point of landfall, but for them to prepare they need to know days in advance. They have to buy the boards to board up the windows, batten down the hatches, and get everyone to a safe haven. There’s a lot that goes into forecasting the direction, path, and speed of hurricanes.

You may wonder why water temperature is so important for hurricane information. The reason has to do with a meteorological phenomenon. Surface water temperature increases the amount of evaporation. The more evaporation you get off the surface of the ocean, the more easily the normal wind flows and trade winds are blocked. When the trade winds are weak, or blocked by walls of heavy moisture content, the hurricane is allowed to freely form and grow stronger. The hurricane doesn’t have to worry about the trade winds knocking down the eye wall of the hurricane, or not allowing it form.

Without the trade winds moving the tropical storm along, that storm starts slowing down, as it goes slower all of that energy starts moving in a circular fashion. The hurricane eye wall becomes tighter and tighter, constantly evolving from a well-defined circle into a broken pattern, and reforming again. Eventually it finds a perfect groove, and the eye wall lasts longer between re-formations. If the water is cold, the evaporation slows down, and any prevailing winds push the hurricane forward on its path preventing the eye wall from creating a very tight circle with an increased low-pressure area.

This is why the super computers take into consideration the water temperature. It has often been said that warm water is like jet fuel for a hurricane. This is indeed true, and this is why warm water temperatures are so important and such an important component of the algorithms used to guesstimate, predict, and forecast the wind speeds, forward speed, and low-pressure numbers. By knowing these things and the prevailing trade winds, the artificially intelligent computer software system can adequately predict within a small range of probability.

It seems everyone knows that very warm water close to the shore in the path of a hurricane is a very dangerous factor to consider when predicting the impending disaster as the hurricane hits land, now you know why.

7 Facts About Disasters and Why Disaster Response is Important

 

7 Facts About Disasters and Why Disaster Response is Important

 

We live in a world where natural disasters are unfortunately common occurrences, so it is extremely important to always be prepared for them. Get familiar with what kind of natural disasters (hurricanes, tornadoes, landslides, etc.) affect the region you live in and make yourself aware of different disaster response options you have. These services exist to be on-call and offer assistance when you experience an earthquake, house fire, or any other unexpected disaster event. Below are seven facts you should know about disasters.

  • In 2012, 905 natural disasters struck worldwide including tornadoes, droughts, earthquakes, hail storms, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires.
  • It is important to devise a disaster response plan with the older adults in your life. With Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy, over half the victims of both catastrophes were senior citizens.
  • Within one decade, from 2002 to 2012, there has been over $1.7 trillion in damages related to disasters. These disasters have affected approximately 2.9 billion people.
  • In 2012 alone, almost 50% of disaster-related fatalities were caused by hydrological events including mass movements and flooding.
  • Hurricanes can reach wind speeds of over 160 miles an hour. Often, these hurricanes can unleash 2.4 trillion gallons of rain in a day causing massive flooding and horrendous wind storms.
  • Floods are the most common natural disasters. In the United States alone, the President declared that over 90% of natural disasters were flood related.
  • Too large of a percentage of homeowners do not have a disaster preparedness plan. A survey conducted showed that 80% of people do not have a home evacuation drill and an additional 60% were not aware of what their town’s evacuation route was.