[Update 07/02/2021 10:00AM]:
What we know:
Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.
There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks, Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa’s progress and updates to the forecast.
What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?
Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible over Southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.
There is a risk of storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa’s potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa’s progress and updates to the forecast.