Tropical Disturbance Updates

[Update 08/04/2021 8:00AM]:

Tropical Disturbance 1

 

What we know:

A small and weak area of low pressure, with limited shower and thunderstorm activity, is passing near the Cabo Verde Islands. Significant development of this system is not expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move northward or north-northwestward over cooler waters, ending its development chances. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 0 percent (Low).

Formation chance through 5 days: Near 0 percent (Low).

 

Tropical Disturbance 2

 

What we know:

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and into early next week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 0 percent (Low).

Formation chance through 5 days: 20 percent (Low).

 

Tropical Disturbance 3

 

What we know:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by late Thursday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for some slow development over the far eastern Atlantic through the weekend into early next week while the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 0 percent (Low).

Formation chance through 5 days: 30 percent (Low).

 

 

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Tropical Storm Updates

[Update 07/06/2021 2:00PM]:

Tropical Storm Elsa

tropical storm Elsa stages through Florida

 

What we know:

Heavy rainfall will impact Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the Western Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible in Southwest and Western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina.

There is a danger of a life-threatening storm surge along portions of the West Coast of Florida Tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia Coast and portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread northward along much of the West Coast of the state through Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

 

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Hurricane Updates

[Update 07/02/2021 10:00AM]:

Hurricane Elsa

What we know:

Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks, Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa’s progress and updates to the forecast.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible over Southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

There is a risk of storm surge, wind and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa’s potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa’s progress and updates to the forecast.

 

 

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Tropical Depression Updates

[Update 11/13/2020 1:00PM]:

Tropical Depression Thirty-One

What we know:

Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Thirty-One may lead to life-threatening flash flood and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane while it approaches the coast of Central America, and there is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight.

 

 

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