Tropical Disturbance Updates

[Update 09/17/2021 2:00PM]:

Tropical Disturbance 1

 

What we know:

Recent satellite images indicate that a new and better-defined center of circulation has developed in association with a low pressure area located about 250 miles east of Norfolk, Virginia. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming more organized near this new center. If these development trends continue, then a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves toward the northeast or east-northeast at 10 to 15 mph, away from the United States Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. The low is expected to transform into a non-tropical gale-force low Saturday or Saturday night while it is located south of Atlantic Canada, and it is likely to bring strong winds and heavy rains to portions of Newfoundland by Sunday and Sunday night. This system is also expected to bring high surf to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through this weekend.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: 80 percent (High).

Formation chance through 5 days: 80 percent (High).

 

Tropical Disturbance 2

 

What we know:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and then near the northern Leeward Islands by Monday and Tuesday. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development over the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 70 percent (High).

Formation chance through 5 days: 80 percent (High).

 

Tropical Disturbance 3

 

What we know:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move toward the west and then northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic, and some gradual development is possible over the weekend before upper-level winds increase and the low moves over cooler waters.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Formation chance through 48 hours: 20 percent (Low).

Formation chance through 5 days: 30 percent (Low).

 

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Tropical Depression Updates

[Update 09/15/2021 8:00AM]:

Tropical Depression Nicholas

 

What we know:

Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the end of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also expected.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

As of right now, Tropical Depression Nicholas is expected to dissipate by Friday evening

 

 

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Tropical Storm Updates

[Update 09/13/2021 2:00PM]:

Tropical Storm Nicholas

 

What we know:

Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also expected.

There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass by late afternoon through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of south Texas into the afternoon.

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Hurricane Updates

[Update 09/10/2021 2:00PM]:

Hurricane Larry

What we know:

Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week.

What is the likelihood of it gaining strength?

Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

 

 

 

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